French Government Collapse: Barnier Expected To Lose Motion of No-Confidence.

Barnier takes a rest before betting the house. Euronews.

It took three months to cobble up a new French Government. Tomorrow, it could collapse entirely

On Tuesday, Prime Minister Michel Barnier invoked Article 49.3 of the French Constitution to push through a portion of the 2024 budget without a vote. He has dared the opposition to take the nuclear option: a vote of no-confidence.

If the vote succeeds, Barnier and his government would have to resign. And this time, the numbers are there.

The far-left and far-right have filed their own no-confidence motions, united by their hostility towards Macron’s centrist coalition. They are likely to topple the minority government—a historical moment. The last successful no-confidence vote was back in 1962.

Le Pen had drawn four lines for the budget negotiations. Barnier accepted three. But yesterday, Le Pen wanted the fourth—retirement payments.

“No” Barnier answered. No more.

That afternoon Barnier stands before the Assembly. His voice steady: “Article 49.3.”

The chamber roared, and MPs scattered like startled crows.

By nightfall, no-confidence motions came from both sides. Barnier now had to fight for survival.

That fourth line was over €3.5 billion in savings—a drop in the bucket of France’s €166 billion deficit. Le Pen’s insistence seems puzzling; Retirement payments weren’t even a core issue of her party’s last campaign. Why risk it?

The answer lies in the political calculus. By bringing down the government, Le Pen will display her party’s power. After the elections in July, Macron formed a minority government. Without a full majority, the new Prime Minister was at the mercy of the far-right. To survive, they needed her support.

Over on the left, they have their own motives. As the largest coalition, they were snubbed when Macron appointed Barnier. The new government’s negotiation with the far-right marks an unforgivable appeasement. Yet somehow, they will find themselves voting against the government hand in hand with the far-right.

In reality, they are both fighting to take over from Macron.

Every serious contender, left and right, wants Macron to resign. A presidential election would come early. And with potentially fatal legal problems, Le Pen might be desperate.

This is unlikely. If the no-confidence vote succeeds tomorrow, the budget is rejected, Barnier resigns, and Macron can simply name another Prime Minister.

These events are no surprise to Macron. Last week, the President’s off-the-record comments were published in Le Parisien: “The government will fall. She [Marine Le Pen] will censure at one point and earlier then we think.”

A government collapse of this kind has no precedent under the Fifth Republic. Journalists are already speculating about who Macron might appoint next. A more pliant figure is expected, a tighter leash to the President and maybe to the far-right.

Economically, it’s not looking good.

The moneyheads among you will know yield spreads for French bonds are growing fast, leading to grating (if overblown) comparisons to Greece. The EU has accepted the government’s €60 billion plan to stop a ballooning deficit.

Political wobbling makes this almost impossible. Still, if no budget passes, the government can just extend last year’s budget. The lights stay on, but reform fails.

The no-confidence vote is tomorrow. Barnier has 24 hours to save his government from collapse.

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